U.S. Gas Consumption Could Drop 20% in 20 Years

A storm of factors, from a decline in demand to more fuel-efficient vehicles, will lead to a long-term decline in U.S. gas demand, according to a recent report from The Associated Press. By 2030, gasoline use in the U.S. will drop “at least 20%” from where it is today, experts say.
 
We’ve already seen an 8% drop in gasoline demand since it peaked in 2006. The more severe decline will be attributed to higher fuel efficiency in new cars mandated by the government as well as electric vehicles and alternative-fuel vehicles that burn ethanol and biofuels. The government will mandate an increase in ethanol and biofuel use to 36 billion gallons by 2022, versus 14 billion gallons in 2011.
 
Even the CEO of Exxon Mobil says that gasoline demand has peaked and that it won’t return, despite more and more cars on the road. One analyst predicts U.S. demand will be just 5.4 million barrels of oil a day, the same level as in 1969.
 
How big an impact does improved fuel economy have? The National Resources Defense Council says that by 2020, the improvements will be equivalent to taking 32 million cars off the road, while the government projects the actual number of new cars will rise an additional 27 million by 2020.
 
Unfortunately, the lower demand likely won’t affect gas prices, as global demand for gas in China and other areas will be growing.
 
U.S. Starts to Show Less Appetite for Gasoline (Detroit News)