Industry Cautiously Pushing Ahead After Uber Self-Driving Crash
The challenges of bringing self-driving cars to market have been a topic de rigueur at automotive conferences in recent years, but panelists at this year’s 2018 Automotive Forum wrestled with a different challenge in the wake of a self-driving Uber hitting and killing a pedestrian. Experts spoke at the forum — an event hosted by J.D. Power and Associates and the National Automobile Dealers Association on the eve of the 2018 New York International Auto Show — after federal regulators spent a week combing the crash site in Tempe, Ariz.
Related: Uber Self-Driving Death Could Have Long-Term Impact on Autonomous Cars
As panelists grappled with self-driving advancements and the loss of human life, two themes became clear: We need to learn more about the full circumstances of the Uber crash and the tragedy underscores the need for technology companies to move with caution.
More Details Needed
Bill Fay, executive vice president at Toyota’s North American arm, called the crash “very disappointing,” adding that it’s “really hard to determine what impact this will have on the overall process of bringing autonomous vehicles to market, but obviously it will be a chapter in building that trust that we’re all going to have to work our way past.”
There still needs to be a “lot of work and a lot of testing that goes on between now and the time we have a fully autonomous vehicle on the road,” Fay added.
Karl Iagnemma, CEO of autonomous developer NuTonomy, cautioned that the industry grappled with similar uncertainty in the wake of a fatal 2016 crash in Florida, when a Tesla Model S hit a semitrailer while its semi-autonomous Autopilot program was engaged. Investigators later concluded that “operational design” permitted the driver to rely too much on Autopilot, and Tesla later updated the system’s software to dissuade drivers from taking their hands off the wheel.
“It’s hard for me to predict what impact one accident will have on the pace of progress of the industry,” Iagnemma said of the Uber collision. He added that “there’s a risk, though, that the public comes out of this accident with a partially formed view” of self-driving vehicle safety.
The Uber, a Volvo XC90 outfitted with additional sensory equipment, hit and killed 49-year-old Elaine Herzberg as she walked a bicycle across a divided multilane road. Camera footage later released from the vehicle depicted Herzberg crossing into the XC90’s field of headlights moments before impact, which police estimate occurred at some 40 mph.
The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the accident, but a spokesman told Cars.com that investigations with fatalities can take 12 to 24 months to complete. In the meantime, Uber has suspended its self-driving pilot programs. Toyota has ceased its self-driving vehicle tests “out of respect to see what the investigation pulls,” Fay said.
‘Orders of Magnitude’ Safer
Crashes like this put “the onus on the scientific community,” said Adam Jonas, a managing director of automotive at Morgan Stanley. For public acceptance, the industry will need to demonstrate that a self-driving car is “orders of magnitude” safer than a human-driven car, he said.
“But we’re not going to know where those points are until we test the legal and regulatory system,” he said, and part of that testing involves the “inevitability of the occasional loss of life,” unfortunately.
“Does that mean that we stop all development?” Jonas said. “No. Airbags occasionally go wrong. … Does anyone remove the airbags? No, because we know that the net benefit to society in terms of saving occupants is overwhelmingly [better].”
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