What Happens After Retro?

With Dodge pushing its upcoming Challenger as a retro alternative to Ford’s also-retro Mustang, we have to wonder: What happens when retro goes stale?

Today’s cars average around five years between redesigns, which means a sizzling-hot look can become a sales headache not too far down the road. Look at the Volkswagen Beetle and Chrysler PT Cruiser, two retro cars that initially turned heads but have since waned. The Beetle has been around since 1998, and year-to-date sales are down 33 percent compared to 2003. The PT Cruiser arrived in 2000; sales have tailed off since their peak in 2002.

Granted, VW and Chrysler probably absorbed development costs for both cars long ago, so it’s relatively cheap to maintain production. But it’s not likely either car will increase market share for its maker — that comes from having new or redesigned products.

In theory, most makeovers aim to bear some resemblance to their predecessors while addressing current-day tastes. So what does an automaker do with a retro car, whose styling is already rooted in the past?

We posed the question to Tom Libby, an analyst at J.D. Power and Associates. After sharing a moment of chin-scratching with us, he offered these thoughts: Automakers have two choices. If said retro car is a niche product (like the Chevrolet SSR or Ford Thunderbird), it’s perfectly fine to declare the fad done and axe the car at the end of its run. And that’s just what Chevy and Ford did to those models. But if the retro car is fundamental to a brand — say, the Mustang or Mini Cooper — the automaker has a tricky line to walk. The redesign should maintain cues from its retro-styled predecessor while offering a fresh-enough look to attract new buyers.

It’s easier said than done, of course. Change too much, and you’ll lose last year’s loyalists; change too little, and potential buyers snooze.

Despite these challenges, automakers seem undeterred. Mini will redesign the Cooper, Ford will build another Mustang. And retro will live on.