Auto Sales Up Because Last Year Was So Down

Good news: Despite rising gas prices, falling housing values and growing credit-card debt, new-vehicle sales in some cities are up. New York City has the best news, with sales up 6.9% in the first quarter of 2008 compared to the same time period last year. Pittsburgh (6.4%), Philadelphia (4.6%) Chicago (4.4%) and Cleveland (0.4%) round out the top five improved cities.

The primary reason first-quarter sales were up this year, however, is that sales were poor in the same period a year ago, so this year looks better by comparison, said Jeff Foltz, editor of Chicago Auto Outlook for Auto Outlook, a market research company that compiles regional sales totals for local dealer groups.

A host of nameplates posted higher sales this quarter in Chicago — Cadillac, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Chevrolet, Nissan, GMC, Mazda, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Jeep, Honda, Infiniti, Toyota/Scion, Acura, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Mini and BMW.

“New offerings did it, such as the CTS at Cadillac, C-Class at Mercedes, Enclave at Buick and Malibu at Chevy,” Foltz said. “Unless they are duds, and there haven’t been any of those, new offerings work every time in attracting sales.”

Gas prices are an ongoing concern, and in response to prices approaching $4 a gallon, subcompacts took a 17% share of the Chicago market in the first quarter, up 2.1% from a year ago.

Foltz said it could take until 2010 for people looking for higher-mileage offerings to find the selection they want.

“There’s not as much to choose from for those wanting better mileage now as there will be by 2010, when we’ll see a greater selection of hybrids, plug-in electrics and diesels,” he said.

Foltz said that, for the full year, Chicago sales should decline 2.5% “for all the reasons the economy is down — gas prices are up, housing values are down and consumer debt is on the rise.”

But Chicago is doing better than other cities that Auto Outlook compiles sales data on. Out west, first-quarter sales tumbled 24% in Phoenix, 19% in Sacramento, 18% in San Diego and 17% in Los Angeles. 

“It was higher gas prices in part, but mostly it was that real estate values have fallen 30% in those areas in the last year,” Foltz said.