The age of the large, brawny vehicle is ending, and Americans will squeeze into smaller vehicles in the future, according to Eric Fedewa of automotive forecaster CSM Worldwide.
Fedewa, CSM’s vice president of global powertrain forecasts, spoke this week at the Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress, where he noted that in the past 15 years, high fuel prices combined with progressive government policy have shrunk the European fleet size considerably. He predicted that the U.S. will now follow suit and that by 2015, the size of the U.S. fleet will be the same as Europe’s and Japan’s.
CSM research has found that when fuel prices rise, drivers simply stay off the road as much as they can afford to. However, consistently higher prices will lead consumers toward smaller engines and, after a while, smaller vehicles altogether. When fuel costs account for 4% of a family’s total spending, it triggers this descent in vehicle size.
Hybrids and electric vehicles will be options, but the technology remains expensive. When push comes to shove, people will go smaller in greater numbers than hybrid.
With new fuel-efficiency standards in the U.S. and gas prices set to rise over the summer, automakers and consumers will continue to steer toward smaller vehicles. However, the Ford F-150 is still regularly the best-selling vehicle in the U.S., and it’s unlikely to shrink in size. Ford did just announce a new turbocharged six-cylinder for the F-150 though — a more fuel-efficient option than a V-8.
